Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.339886 0.388716 0.441758 0.503612 0.573721 0.650679 0.741523
2025-08-17 0.251375 0.312154 0.383431 0.473038 0.582531 0.711820 0.875930
2025-08-24 0.197234 0.264096 0.348182 0.461350 0.609325 0.795854 1.048442
2025-08-31 0.156856 0.225428 0.317484 0.449495 0.633266 0.879268 1.232708
2025-09-07 0.132282 0.203060 0.304018 0.457532 0.683897 1.004026 1.489426
2025-09-14 0.106048 0.173420 0.275257 0.438996 0.693972 1.073726 1.679419
2025-09-21 0.088157 0.152991 0.256463 0.431723 0.718810 1.167344 1.916849
2025-09-28 0.073458 0.134905 0.238158 0.421868 0.737480 1.253190 2.153253
2025-10-05 0.065506 0.126746 0.234645 0.435476 0.795825 1.409117 2.522497
2025-10-12 0.056772 0.115553 0.223979 0.434759 0.829076 1.526856 2.842140
2025-10-19 0.050251 0.107312 0.217229 0.439842 0.872943 1.667821 3.219614
2025-10-26 0.045364 0.101393 0.213842 0.450560 0.928391 1.835856 3.666488
2025-11-02 0.038049 0.089338 0.196927 0.433023 0.928776 1.905252 3.945056
2025-11-09 0.031435 0.077518 0.178527 0.409486 0.913696 1.943082 4.168245
2025-11-16 0.027107 0.070037 0.168135 0.401324 0.929405 2.044425 4.533153
2025-11-23 0.023387 0.063251 0.158123 0.392344 0.941967 2.140892 4.900944
2025-11-30 0.021249 0.059971 0.155676 0.400399 0.993871 2.327908 5.487621
2025-12-07 0.018097 0.053395 0.144137 0.384770 0.988502 2.388264 5.802066
2025-12-14 0.015888 0.048903 0.137005 0.378832 1.005352 2.500890 6.249904
2025-12-21 0.013880 0.044544 0.129434 0.370464 1.014846 2.597391 6.672134
2025-12-28 0.012956 0.043174 0.129642 0.382717 1.078583 2.831497 7.453802
2026-01-04 0.011664 0.040399 0.125456 0.382249 1.108859 2.987072 8.061101
2026-01-11 0.010687 0.038415 0.123197 0.386862 1.153567 3.184665 8.799217